What’s behind this prediction is a 1979 policy limiting couples to having one child as a means of trying to stem population growth in the world’s most populace country.

However, research by a Saint Louis University School of Medicine researcher who spent a year in China studying its geriatric policies and practices indicates China may be on a collision course with a bulging aging population and not enough family caregivers to go around.

"Everything is fine right now. Today’s older Chinese had no restrictions so they had five or six children. They have plenty of caregivers. But these caregivers were limited to having a single child. What happens in 30 years when they turn 80? Their support will fall entirely on that only child. And, what if that child marries? Now you’re talking about caring for four older adults."

Flaherty notes that the Asian culture is among the strongest in resolving to care for aging family members. "The Chinese tradition of taking care of your family is strong -- maybe the strongest in the world -- but I don’t know whether that tradition is going to be strong enough to counterbalance the pressures of today’s society," he said.

Flaherty says those pressures include finding a job. Both men and women are expected to work in China today and the pressure to find work forces people to move around.

"In the past, it was almost forbidden for you to move away from your family, your city or your village, but now it’s necessary if you want to find work. Are you going to take your 80-year-old parents with you? If you’re married, are you going to take both sets of parents with you? These are questions I don’t think were considered when the one-child policy was instituted."

Flaherty notes that couples with money can hire a baomu, a type of live-in maid who provides care for an older person. In this country, we would call a baomu a professional caregiver – a home health aide or similar title. But while this person may have eldercare training there are no standards in China.

For his study, Flaherty spent a year in 2005 and 2006 visiting Chinese homes, universities, hospitals and nursing homes in three major cities: Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu -- all cities with populations of more than 10 million. His findings and experiences are contained in his article, China: The Aging Giant, in the August issue of The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society.